The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing … Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ... Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so …Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co … Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... About Metaculus. Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that ... Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. …For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. … Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance. Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …Background Info. Super Bowl LVIII is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.What is Metaculus? Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for …Metaculus is a technology company that aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. It hosts forecasting competitions, publishes research, and collaborates with partners on various …Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool.If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...Feb 29, 2024 · Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so navigation is fast and ... For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. The relevant question has the following resolution criteria: For these purposes we will thus define "an artificial general …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By …This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ... Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ... meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time.This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...AI Forecasts. Forgot Password? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective …If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction …Sep 12, 2022 · Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the 7-digit ... Tournaments. Help the global community model, understand, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Prove your forecasting abilities, support effective policy and decision-making, and win cash prizes. Learn how tournaments are scored. Reach out to discuss launching a tournament on what’s important to you.Forecasting Asset Prices. There are many questions on Metaculus about the behavior of asset prices on financial markets. Some of these questions can be quite difficult to answer using intuitive judgment. As an example, take this question (on which the community forecast may need some refreshing as of the time of publication of this notebook ...Metaculus Journal The Doomsday Clock , which holds at 100 seconds to midnight as of today, suggests the world has never been closer to a catastrophe involving nuclear weapons. But another advocacy group has said it’s “only a matter of time” until some of the world’s most powerful countries agree to make them illegal.Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later.In this essay contest, we open the floor for investigations of long-term nuclear risks and what might be done to reduce them. As of November 12, 2021, through the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament and Nuclear Risk Horizons Project, 151 Metaculus users have provided a total of 3503 forecasts on 113 questions.But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later.This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...The science. Online prediction markets are an extension and specific use of the “efficient markets hypothesis” in investing, in which everyone’s …Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ...AGI Outcomes. Questions about the long-term outcomes for humanity with the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) over the next century. Looking for another lens? See the future of AI according to Metaculus.The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO. There will also be a series of progress prizes, totalling up to $5mn, for publicly-shared AI models that achieve key milestones towards the grand prize.From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. …Metaculus and MQL5 had the highest errors on these forecasts. Time Is Of The Essence. For a majority of the indicators, excluding GDP and Retail Sales, Metaculus provided forecasts an average of 36 days before competitors. A regression analysis did not reveal a statistically significant relationship between … How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance. Upgraded Tech Stack: In 2022, we rewrote nearly the entire Metaculus application, modernizing the Metaculus tech stack to support our 2023 product roadmap. We …provided an information source on Nov 9, 2022, 3:46 AM. Guardian: Ron DeSantis landslide victory brings Trump and 2024 into focus. In a landslide victory, with more than 95% of votes in, DeSantis won 59.4% of the vote with 4,607,597. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, Charlie Crist, won just 40% of the vote with 3,100,603.The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.AGI Outcomes. Questions about the long-term outcomes for humanity with the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) over the next century. Looking for another lens? See the future of AI according to Metaculus.Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ...Bio. I'm a researcher at MIT's Computer Science and AI lab, Associate Director of Epoch, an amateur forecaster and a Metaculus admin (since 2018). I sometimes organize forecasting efforts on Computing and AI. Please tag me if edits or resolutions are in order, or if you'd like me to review pending questions!By Peter Mühlbacher, Research Scientist at Metaculus, and Peter Scoblic, Director of Nuclear Risk at Metaculus. Metaculus is a forecasting platform where an active community of thousands of forecasters regularly make probabilistic predictions on topics of interest ranging from scientific progress to geopolitics. …McBride declined to say how much Iridium is paying Relativity per launch, but she said Iridium got a “good price” that was lower then Relativity’s advertised launch price of $12 million per Terran 1 mission. The max advertised payload for the Terran 1 is 1,250 kg to LEO; the list price of $12m per launch gives …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .In the AI Progress Essay Contest, we open the floor for investigations of predictions regarding the future of AI, especially as it relates to the prospects, timing and impacts of potentially transformative advanced AI systems. Our aim is for systematic thinkers to engage with the wealth of AI forecasts that Metaculus has built up over the years.This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...Prediction markets. Manifold Market seems to think, that there is an 62% chance that GPT-5 will come out before 2025. Similarly, Metaculus puts the announcement date of GPT-5 to Sept 2024: [2] So it seems like the forecasting sites expect a strong deviation from the historical trend. Note, that if GPT-5 takes as long as GPT-4 did, we …Metaculus Pro Forecasters will predict each metric alongside the crowd. A grant from the Future Fund makes this project possible, and is greatly appreciated. Our thanks also to the forecasting community for contributing to a greater understanding of humanity's near- and long-term future.Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...Metaculus Journal James M. Acton holds the Jessica T. Matthews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Last March, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was faltering and President Vladimir Putin was issuing nuclear threats, I tweeted my skepticism of efforts to estimate ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. M etaculus Questions Pizza masters bayonne, Harlequin great dane puppies, Envision optical, Nya, Castle chevy villa park, Stein mart, Usa nails, Walmart hutchinson mn, The token shop, Plug . tech, Martin's crosswinds, Pemeye, Big bear diner, Jerry pallotta
Bio. I'm a researcher at MIT's Computer Science and AI lab, Associate Director of Epoch, an amateur forecaster and a Metaculus admin (since 2018). I sometimes organize forecasting efforts on Computing and AI. Please tag me if edits or resolutions are in order, or if you'd like me to review pending questions!. One lakes edge
lakeshore dermatologyThis question will resolve as Yes if, at any point within 3 years after the beginning of the invasion, the entire main island of Taiwan is under de facto control of the People's Republic of China. For the purposes of this question, China will be considered to "launch a full-scale invasion" if the event is described as such by both The New …Metaculus and MQL5 had the highest errors on these forecasts. Time Is Of The Essence. For a majority of the indicators, excluding GDP and Retail Sales, Metaculus provided forecasts an average of 36 days before competitors. A regression analysis did not reveal a statistically significant relationship between … Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ... If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis …We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a …Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.Oct 1, 2022 · Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Robert de Neufville is a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, a Good Judgment superforecaster, and the former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes about forecasting in Telling the Future.. The …Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page.. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the …Metaculus is as much a record/evaluation of past predictions as it is a tracker of current information on a subject. Exceptions to this rule can be made in some scenarios, such as tracking COVID-19 deaths while we’re 1 year into the pandemic (self-explanatory), or if a question needs to be written/opened quickly, such as an outbreak of ...A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.An unexpected number of cases of mpox (monkeypox) have begun appearing in multiple countries since early May 2022, prompting expressions of concern from some public health agencies. This project hosts all …Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories.The science. Online prediction markets are an extension and specific use of the “efficient markets hypothesis” in investing, in which everyone’s …Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted ... Leaderboards. Learn more about Metaculus Medals. Duration: Time Period: Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …Metaculus has developed its own style and norms for writing and submitting questions. Heeding these best-practices will be appreciated by Metaculus forecasters and Moderators alike. Questions which don't follow these best-practices may be rejected. Write in a neutral and objective tone.Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ...I chose all questions from the Metaculus Forecasting AI Progress that have already been resolved and have more than 5 upvotes. This cutoff is ultimately arbitrary but I felt like many questions below it were confusing or already answered by other predictions. In total this leaves 22 questions that I put into four categories: compute, arxiv ... 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... Feb 29, 2024 · Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so navigation is fast and ... Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the general election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, …Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthrough. In 2022, I ranked 41st out of 4184 Metaculus forecasters for …For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.Summary. To summarize, i would guesstimate that it will take between ~0 to 4 years from a weak AGI to superintelligence. It's reasonable to assume that after the first announcement of a weak AGI, humanity will have at most 4 years to prevent the birth of a rogue superintelligence. — edited by tryingToPredictFuture.Metaculus is a platform for forecasting future events and testing your accuracy. Join the Economist 2022 Tournament and compete with other forecasters on questions related to economics, politics, and society. Earn points, prizes, and recognition for your predictions.Background Info. Following Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023, Israel has launched a campaign against Hamas in Gaza, including both air and ground assault. This has led numerous countries to claim Israel has went too far, and threaten to intervene; other countries, meanwhile, expressed support for Israel, and brought military assets to …Here's a plot of the Metaculus Strong AGI predictions over time (code by Rylan Schaeffer). The x-axis is the data of the prediction, the y-axis is the predicted year of strong AGI at the time. The blue line is a linear fit. The red dashed line is a y = x line.Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity.Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ... How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance. From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Robert de Neufville is a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, a Good Judgment superforecaster, and the former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes about forecasting in Telling the Future.. The …Community Insights Reveal Forecasts' Key Drivers. Forecast questions sometimes feature hundreds of comments offering analyses, rationales, arguments, and evidence.Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012. Under Putin's leadership, Russia has ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. About. https://github.com/casens5. Experience. Metaculus. 2 years. Frontend Developer. Jan 2023 - Present 1 year 3 months. Santa Monica, California, United …This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.NBC News: The RNC is weighing a resolution to declare Trump its 'presumptive' nominee. The Republican National Committee could move next week to declare former President Donald Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee” for the party’s presidential nomination. A draft resolution anointing Trump and obtained by NBC …For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.As of 12 March 2021, I am officially retired from Metaculus: I won't be forecasting on new questions and I won't be updating my existing forecasts. Expect my brier and log scores to deteriorate rapidly. I continue to be a big fan of Metaculus and the forecasting community—I just lack the time to participate regularly.Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …American Values 2024 said in a news release they have gathered the necessary signatures to secure ballot access for Kennedy in Arizona and Georgia, two states that helped President Joe Biden defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election by very narrow margins. “The grassroots energy and momentum give us … Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. 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